The Modi factor and the election plans of Bhartiya Janata Party


All the political parties are nervous from the widespread popularity of Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh but at the same time, are assured also due to unstable condition prevailing in the BJP. This commentary advises BJP to let Narendra Modi contest election from Lucknow if it has to test the fruit of success in from four states including UP-Bihar.

The forecasting by several survey groups is on about the possibilities of defeat and victory in the next Lok Sabha election these days. Conclusions, arrived at by almost all surveys are the same and that is the dooms day is fast approaching for the Congress Party, BJP will shine high in skies, but not as higher enough to gain majority to form government on its own strengths. Other political parties, which are called the regional parties, will carve out their places in a big way. Whether the regional parties themselves together with would form the next government or would support either the Congress or the BJP in forming the government at the center is not much in discussion at this present juncture. As far as the Congress is concerned, even the Congressmen are not in doubt about their sinking boat as the situations prevail at present in the country. Despite there being majority opinion to make Narendra Modi the next PM, no as much confidence is evident in the party that the BJP would be forming the government at center on its own strengths or what regional parties would support it in forming government at center.

One big reason of this is also that all the non-BJP Parties are living under the impression that the possibilities of the election result will depend on the Muslim votes. Secularizing the issue of national security for wooing the vote banks does not auger well for nation. On the hand, so huge is the restlessness of bringing the Muslim vote bank into own fold that Digvijoy Singh has not only held Narendra Modi responsible for the riots but also reveled the secret that wherever BJP in states are in government are hatching conspiracies for rioting. It is quite surprising why he did not held BJP responsible for over 30 riots that had taken place in Uttar Pradesh. The party that is stoking the fire of divisionism for the sake of Muslim votes are under the conviction that the society has already so hugely divided on the basis of caste, religion and regionalism that they cannot react on unity. Nations is paying the price for giving Manmohan Singh a second term.

Why is the air of doubt about BJP when the Congress is on downslide?


This is a declared fact that is known to the people that the Congress Party is not going to make a comeback at the center but why doubts are all pervasive everywhere regarding the BJP despite the country's aspirations towards Narendra Modi? To understand this, let us give a glance on the position of BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Why in Uttar Pradesh there is not even a single such leader in BJP who could garner mass recognition equivalent to the leadership of SP and BSP? Whole hog of leaders of state are sitting on the national level posts in Delhi. But not even a leader could form an image as a leader in Uttar Pradesh. No one except Kalyan Singh is the BJP face left in UP. However, could Kalyan Singh now become the recognized face of BJP in UP? He has himself obliterated his image and just to bring his son in politics has returned to BJP. The voices of those rule the state who have become important through religion agenda after closing the natural door of nurturing an universally recognized leader from BJP.

Analysing the future scenario based on surveys conducted


One hundred and twenty members are elected for Lok Sabha after clubbing together Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. If Uttarakhand and Jharkhand is added up to this, the number becomes 136 out of which, 23 members are from BJP. These are the regions that important equally like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee had become Prime Minister, 59 MPs were elected from Uttar Pradesh. Today, this number has reduced to ten. According to the survey that are being published, BJP could bag from 12 to 25 seats from UP. BJP's own office bears have claimed to be fetching over 30 seats. Will it be possible under the situation for the BJP to form the government at the center? All political parties are edgy from the popularity of Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh but they are relieved due to the condition that prevails in BJP now. Due to this factor, all the surveys are indicating the main fireworks to take place between SP and BSP.

Analysing the future scenario based on surveys conducted


One hundred and twenty members are elected for Lok Sabha after clubbing together Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. If Uttarakhand and Jharkhand is added up to this, the number becomes 136 out of which, 23 members are from BJP. These are the regions that important equally like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee had become Prime Minister, 59 MPs were elected from Uttar Pradesh. Today, this number has reduced to ten. According to the survey that are being published, BJP could bag from 12 to 25 seats from UP. BJP's own office bears have claimed to be fetching over 30 seats. Will it be possible under the situation for the BJP to form the government at the center? All political parties are edgy from the popularity of Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh but they are relieved due to the condition that prevails in BJP now. Due to this factor, all the surveys are indicating the main fireworks to take place between SP and BSP.

This is natural also because while the SP and BSP after declaring their prospective candidates and effecting changes based on evalusyopns, BJP appears to doing nothing of the kinds. The candidates declared at the last minute cannot cope with the situations. Under the situation, BJP cannot even make its supporters feel emboldened. There are ling term means and methods to tackle this situation but on immediate basis, the only option left to convert people's sentiments in votes is declaring Narendra Modi as the candidate from Lucknow constituency. The benefits of undercurrent wafting in his favor could be encashed only if he contests election fro Lucknow. If this happens, seeing the mood of people, this much could well be said that BJP could break its old record of victory in Uttar Pradesh and it could bag 100 seats out of 136 seats from all the four states.

Enfold


Ata Bihari had after a great brooding selected Lucknow for contesting election. The atmosphere that was in 1971 was primed for Indira Gandhi alone and the same atmosphere is waiting to welcome Narendra Modi. As people talked of voting for Indira Gandhi then, same expression is being vented out for Modi today. BJP should base its election stratagem based on this premise.


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Comments

Guest Author: sunil kumar03 Sep 2013

I think for the first time, the thinking of Bharatiya Janata Party has changed from Mandir issue to other ways of reaching the people in bigger way. I must appreciate Narender Modi for taking the help of social media and keeping himself update with the developments taking place in the country. Targeting youth who are going to be first time voters and who are desperately looking for change in the leadership of the country is really going to benefit Modi. Congress is taking light of BJP access to youth through social media and they are going to face the tune soon.

Guest Author: sunil kumar03 Sep 2013

The BJP is at it's old game of 'Ram Mandir' before the elections. This 'Ram Mandir' issue did not in anyway helped the BJP in the earlier elections and it will be the same now also. This will certainly raise the religious passions in the country and the BJP is counting on the Hindu vote bank in U.P.

The surveys are indicating Modi as the most preferred candidate for the Prime Minister post. We have to bear one thing in mind that ours is not a Presidential type of voting. Whether Modi becomes the Prime Minister or not depends upon the Lok Sabha seats the BJP will get in the forthcoming elections. The biggest drawback for the BJP is that one of it's major allies parted ways with it.

The days of a single party getting the power on it's own strength are gone. It is the regional parties and their alliance with the main political parties Congress and BJP, is going to be the deciding factor in the coming general elections. The Congress party lost it's credibility due to scams and corruption. We have to wait and see how BJP will be able to take advantage of the situation. Narendra Modi is a controversial person and it is to be watched how he will overcome the controversies surrounding him. The latest letter of an IPS officer Mr Vanzara of Gujarat cadre may cause problems for him and also his close associate and UP in charge Amit Shah.

Guest Author: sunil kumar03 Sep 2013

I think its the Modi Factor which will give the BJP a good chance in the coming election. More the people targeting him, more he is becoming popular. Indian politicians especially congress in the name of Secularism and minority votes, are ruining the country. And still people vote for these people because they dont have any other option. We have created such a country where the politicians for their own benefits, are ready to go to any level of corruption. We need a change for sure. If we get UPA3 this time, then i guess we will be back to the pre-Independence era, struggling for freedom. They will do more damage than done by the Britishers. Economy is at its lowest, jobs are decreasing, inflation is going up, corruption is there everywhere, no development in the infrastructure, but the government doesnt give a damn about it. They just want to secure their seats again and then rule us for 5 more years and loot the country.

Guest Author: eddard09 Feb 2014

Since publishing of this article,in the last nearly six months a lot of events have taken place in the Indian political scenario.
Modi is presented and accepted by the BJP as the PM candidate in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. There had bees a livid debate as to whether it is right and proper to declare about a PM candidate when the prerogative to elect a PM is not directly vested in the people's hands.That only served o buttress the inability of Congress to come openly with the name of its PM candidate . Though Rahul Gandhi is in all probability expected to be elected as PM if Congress becomes the biggest party and UPA the biggest alliance after the elections.

However there is a pervading fear and doubt in the UPA and Congress camp about their win chance. This prevents them taking a risk by announcing their PM candidate.

As of now Moi has a clear edge in popular support. One news item today says that Modi got an unexpected and unprecedented crowd for a public meeting in Assam, which was beyond all the best expectations of BJP itself.

While the party claims a mammoth 3 lakh crowd, the police is also readily accepting the figure to be above one lakh.

The expression of hope and wis by Mr Sushil Kumar Shinde, the Home Minister that he would appreciate Mr.Sharad Pawar a fellow Maharashtrian to be Prime Minister of this country also signals the assumption in the UPA camp of things s to come.

Rahul though tries to present a confident face, appears a lacklustre campaign leader with a halfhearted attempt to enthuse people.

Unless some miracle happens between now and the elections, the pointer signals lead for Modi.



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